In the Society of Actuaries’ 19th annual survey, 100+ insurance executives ranked AI 4th for 2026 and 1st for the three-year outlook.
Key Takeaways
- 27% of C-suite executives named AI as their top long-term risk. Near-term, 8% named it.
- Financial volatility (25%) and geoeconomic and globalization shifts (19%) led the 2026 rankings.
- 53% of consulting firm executives named AI as their top long-term risk.
- AI + other risks was the top risk combination, named by 33% of executives.
- Geopolitical risks had the lowest carryover: 24% of executives who named one near-term also named one long-term.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) and Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) published the 19th Annual Emerging Risk Survey, drawing on responses from 100+ Chief Risk Officers, Chief Actuaries, and senior consulting partners in insurance and financial services. Participants ranked the risks most likely to affect their organizations in 2026 and over the next 3 or more years.
AI is the top long-term risk
27% of executives named AI adverse outcomes as the top risk over the next 3 or more years. Financial volatility ranked second at 17%. Geopolitical risks fell out of the top five entirely.
Consulting firms are the most concerned. 53% of consulting firm executives named AI as their top long-term risk. Even in the near term, 35% named it. That is the highest near-term share for AI of any responder group.
Property and casualty insurance executives also named AI as their biggest long-term concern at 18%, tied with extreme weather events.
Near-term concerns
For 2026, financial volatility leads. 25% of executives named it as the top near-term risk. 19% named geoeconomic and globalization shifts, driven by tariffs, export controls, and sanctions. AI ranked fourth at 8%.
Geopolitical risks had the lowest carryover of any category. Only 24% of executives who named a geopolitical risk near-term also named one long-term.
When risks are combined, those mixed with AI create the most concern
33% of respondents said AI combined with other risks is a top concern.
Among these combinations, AI paired with cyber threats and AI paired with financial volatility topped the list at 9% each.
The survey is in its 19th consecutive year. Disruptive technology, the broader category that includes AI, has ranked in the top three emerging risks since 2023, spiking in 2026.
