Even after practical safeguards are in place, experts still say that five AI risk categories have a 10% probability of causing catastrophic harm.

Key Takeaways

• 18 of 24 AI risk categories have more than a 10% probability of catastrophic harm by 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario.
• Even with pragmatic mitigations in place, experts still rated five AI risks above the 10% probability threshold.
• Information, finance, and national security were identified as the sectors most vulnerable to AI-related risks.
• The highest-rated risk categories included dangerous AI capabilities, competitive dynamics, weapons and cyberattacks, power centralization, and false information.
• Weapons and cyberattacks were the most frequently cited expert concern, selected by 26.8% of respondents.

A new report from MIT, Prioritizing the Risks from Artificial Intelligence, asked 272 AI experts to assess which AI risks are most severe, who is most vulnerable to them, and who should be responsible for addressing them. The study used a structured survey method in which experts answered questions over three rounds and reviewed anonymous feedback between rounds to build expert consensus across 24 categories of AI risk. The results suggest experts see meaningful catastrophic risk across much of the AI landscape over the next five years.

Catastrophic risk assessments

Experts identified 18 of 24 AI risk domains as having a greater than 10% probability of catastrophic harm in the next five years under a business-as-usual scenario. The report defined catastrophic harm as more than one million deaths, more than $100 billion in financial losses, or comparable societal-scale harm.

The five risk categories viewed as most severe were:

• Dangerous AI capabilities: AI systems enabling large-scale harm or loss of control.
• Competitive dynamics: Pressure to deploy AI quickly at the expense of safety.
• Weapons and cyberattacks: AI enabling stronger cyber operations or weapons.
• Power centralization: AI concentrating power among a few organizations or governments.
• False information: AI-generated misinformation that undermines trust.

Researchers also evaluated a scenario where governments and companies implemented practical, cost-effective safeguards. While risk levels declined across all 24 categories, five remained above the 10% catastrophic-harm threshold: dangerous AI capabilities, weapons and cyberattacks, power centralization, environmental harm, and inequality and unemployment. Even after those safeguards were implemented, all 24 risks still had at least a 5% probability of causing catastrophic harm.

Most vulnerable sectors

The report asked experts to assess the vulnerability of 14 industry sectors to AI-related risks.

Information and national security were rated the most vulnerable sectors. Experts said those sectors face heightened exposure because AI is increasingly embedded in decision-making, information distribution, and critical systems. Finance and insurance also ranked near the top due to risks related to fraud, scams, AI security weaknesses, and system failures.

Healthcare received high vulnerability ratings for privacy loss, discrimination, and unsafe reliance on AI systems. By contrast, the accommodation and food services sector (including hotels, lodging, and restaurants), agriculture, manufacturing, and arts and entertainment were viewed as less vulnerable. However, experts noted they could still face broader economic and workforce effects.

Top concerns

When experts were asked to identify the three AI risks that concerned them most, weapons and cyberattacks ranked first at 26.8%, followed by power centralization at 23.5%, disinformation and influence at 22.1%, the erosion of a shared understanding of reality at 21.6%, and dangerous capabilities at 21.6%.

The report assigns much of the responsibility for addressing these risks to AI developers, governments, regulators, and standards bodies. Its release comes as policymakers in the United States, Europe, and elsewhere continue debating how AI systems should be governed, tested, and monitored as adoption accelerates.